66-23
Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in West Virginia by percentage.
[Link]
The pundits and talking heads have been quick to dismiss Sen. Clinton this past week after her showing in IN and NC. Understandably, my friends on the left would like to call the game on account of rain sooner rather than later. Hence, the talk this week of unifying the Democrat Party coming from team Obama.
But what makes the Dems dilemma interesting is the degree to which whole factions of the party have been reluctant to join Sen. Obama's cause, much to the chagrin of some party loyalists. In turn, the true pragmatists are maintaining their reservations pointing to the likes of perennial loser George McGovern (a johnny-come-lately to the Obama campaign) and Michael Dukakis as examples of their concern; the inference being that they would rather build a broader, winnable coalition behind Sen. Clinton in November than one on the backed by the far-left. Sen. Clinton's lead over John McCain in most battleground states helps to fan the flames. Sen. Obama notably trails Sen. McCain in both FL and OH, though admittedly much ground remains between now and November.
In truth, Sen. Obama probably should have won big in NC. Blacks broke for the Senator 13-1 and made up roughly 1/3 of the electorate. And Sen. Clinton probably should have eked out a victory in IN where white voters in general backed her on the order of about 60%.
But questions remain for the current front-runner.
The situation was summed up best by Clinton strategist Paul Begala who said, Democrats can't win with "eggheads and African-Americans." Were awards given for one-liners, this would be among the Democrats' best. Naturally, Begala took a bit of heat for his comments, but aside from being a bit coarse, I do not think they were a stretch. Sen. Clinton polls especially well among the same blue-collar, white Democrats that broke for President Reagan in the 1980 and 1984 elections. Big wins in WV and KY will only increase the questions.
For now, I think the only fair conclusion one can draw from recent numbers are that the primaries pretty much fell as one might expect. If primaries in WV and KY also fall as expected, then Democrats are, indeed, in a pickle. Do they pick the candidate that appeals to their baser idealism (Sen. Obama could well claim a clear majority of delegates too)? Or do they go with the candidate that has the best chance of winning?
Here's hoping they pick the former. When you've visited 57 states, I think you deserve a shot at the nomination.
[Link]
The pundits and talking heads have been quick to dismiss Sen. Clinton this past week after her showing in IN and NC. Understandably, my friends on the left would like to call the game on account of rain sooner rather than later. Hence, the talk this week of unifying the Democrat Party coming from team Obama.
But what makes the Dems dilemma interesting is the degree to which whole factions of the party have been reluctant to join Sen. Obama's cause, much to the chagrin of some party loyalists. In turn, the true pragmatists are maintaining their reservations pointing to the likes of perennial loser George McGovern (a johnny-come-lately to the Obama campaign) and Michael Dukakis as examples of their concern; the inference being that they would rather build a broader, winnable coalition behind Sen. Clinton in November than one on the backed by the far-left. Sen. Clinton's lead over John McCain in most battleground states helps to fan the flames. Sen. Obama notably trails Sen. McCain in both FL and OH, though admittedly much ground remains between now and November.
In truth, Sen. Obama probably should have won big in NC. Blacks broke for the Senator 13-1 and made up roughly 1/3 of the electorate. And Sen. Clinton probably should have eked out a victory in IN where white voters in general backed her on the order of about 60%.
But questions remain for the current front-runner.
The situation was summed up best by Clinton strategist Paul Begala who said, Democrats can't win with "eggheads and African-Americans." Were awards given for one-liners, this would be among the Democrats' best. Naturally, Begala took a bit of heat for his comments, but aside from being a bit coarse, I do not think they were a stretch. Sen. Clinton polls especially well among the same blue-collar, white Democrats that broke for President Reagan in the 1980 and 1984 elections. Big wins in WV and KY will only increase the questions.
For now, I think the only fair conclusion one can draw from recent numbers are that the primaries pretty much fell as one might expect. If primaries in WV and KY also fall as expected, then Democrats are, indeed, in a pickle. Do they pick the candidate that appeals to their baser idealism (Sen. Obama could well claim a clear majority of delegates too)? Or do they go with the candidate that has the best chance of winning?
Here's hoping they pick the former. When you've visited 57 states, I think you deserve a shot at the nomination.
This entry was posted
on Saturday, May 10, 2008 at 5:09 PM.
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