Is This a Recession?

Posted by Tory | Saturday, March 22, 2008 | 0 comments »

Money Magazine had an interesting article today discussing the differences between public perception of a recession and the rubric actually used by economist to define the term. Suffice it to say, there is a marked disconnect between the two.

[Link]

According to Money, economists take quite a different view from public perception:

Economists' definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, and though growth was sluggish in the last quarter - 0.6% - the U.S. economy has not yet shown one quarter of retraction.

Of course, go down to your local bar and the 'experts' there will tell you something rather different:
Of the more than 1,000 adult Americans conducted March 14-16 , 74% said they believe the nation is now in a recession. That figure rose from 66% in February and 61% in January.

While job losses are up, I would suggest that most Americans adopt the idea of a recession because of two factors:

1) Rising gas prices.
2) Rising inflation.

Neither spell the death knell of the U.S. economy, but these two ills combined have a striking manifestation in the household ledger. They certainly do on mine. Granted, as a student I am much more insulated from the financial worries facing many.

Still, despite the gloomy news, most Americans looks for a turn around in '09 according to the survey. Economists tend to agree.

So, in answer to the question, we're not in a recession yet- thought we might legitimately call it a funk. Even economies have identity/life crises from time to time.

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