Last night was a restless one so I found myself awake in the wee hours of the morning watching CNN's replay of the debate. In response to my post below on Oklahoma's poll numbers for Huckabee, Matt of Catch Penny acclaim posed the following questions:
3 questions I'm pondering:
1. Is Huck peaking too soon?
2. If Giuliani truly is toast, where does his support go - mostly to Huck, mostly to Mitt, or more-or-less evenly distributed among the candidates?
3. Does the Club for Growth step up its attacks against Huck? They've run some ads against him in Iowa, but haven't yet "released the hounds."
[Link]
A couple of thoughts.
Having now seen the debate, I can understand why the blogs cited had good things to say about Huckabee. The numbers from
MyDD, a liberal blog were compelling: Huck polls especially well among the undecideds even when compared with many of the assumed front-runners, including Giuliani and Romney. Such a showing can only help his efforts. That said, my reaction to question one is informed partly by my reaction to question two. Have we begun to see Huckabee peak? And is Giuliani is truly 'toast?' The answer, as any good law student knows, is that it depends.
On Huckabee's potential, given that there are so many undecided Republicans out there still, I think there remains a lot of ground for him to cover between now and Iowa. In Romney's case it was clear. Support for Mitt began to fade back in the summer. Support for Thompson never took off. But Huckabee seems to gain new supporters and fresh dollars as the weeks go by. Huck's campaign staff notes in every communique to donors that their plan is for a war of attrition; meaning that they intend to make incremental gains in support leading up to the early contests. Given this, I am not certain that we've seen him level off. Consequently, I cannot say that he has peaked too soon because it remains unclear to me that he has. If I were to forecast, I would look for Huckabee to continue making steady headway in the Polls.
Giuliani is an interesting case. While his support seems to have leveled off nationally, I wouldn't say that he is toast. But he's definitely getting a little crispy. Rudy deflected the question last night, but in truth his campaign can't talk about Meals on Wheels without invoking 9/11. The problem in recent weeks has been that Conservative voters are becoming more and more familiar with his positions on abortion and gay marriage. When this is coupled with his recent ethics issues, the aggregation of these factors raises legitimate concerns among the GOP rank and file. Further, his platform has largely been premised upon his electability. With wretched answers last night to the faith questions and his lethargic defense against Romney's attacks, his mantel of inevitability (and electability) is suddenly less secure.
That said, a sizable portion of Rudy's base comes from moderate elements of the party and those Club-for-Growth-types mentioned. These guys are probably with him for the long haul no matter what Huckabee or anyone else does. Quite naturally, I would expect their attack ads will step up.
To wit, Fred Thompson arguably introduced the first attack ad of the season during the debate last night. I thought Huckabee responded fairly well- he did not appear as rattled at Mitt. It helped that Thompson managed even to bumble his own attack. I would expect more of the same as the elections near. What will be interesting, purely from a political perspective and not as a Huckabee supporter, is to see whether or not Huckabee will go negative and if so, how.
CNN said that the
believe ad his campaign is airing in Iowa, and during the debate, was a veiled, negative ad attacking Thompson, Giuliani and Romney for their liberal positions on abortion and the like. I think this is giving the campaign a bit too much credit, but assuming they are correct perhaps it will be a template for how Huck will go on the offense.
Finally, having seen the numbers out of Florida and the post-debate
reactions from MyDD, I have begun to question what Giuliani's national lead means. Like the general election, the nominations are determined on a state by state basis. What puzzles me is when the contest is broken down by state, especially early states, Huckabee does pretty well. I wonder if perhaps a disproportionate number of Giuliani supporters are skewing the numbers and not presenting an accurate reflection of voter indecision?
Like this response, I think it is an open issue.
The Conservative Blog Network
